North Florida

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	218.0
Current RPI:	218
Expected SOS:	194
Current SOS:	194
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	8-8
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC RPI:	189
Expected OOC SOS:	34

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	218.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	98-66	L	0%
11-11	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	86-66	L	0%
11-13	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	95-85	L	0%
11-16	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	108-68	L	0%
11-18	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	N	84-81	L	0%
11-19	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	86-83	L	0%
11-25	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	A	86-65	L	0%
11-29	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	84-81	W	100%
12-11	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	A	89-101	W	100%
12-13	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	87-85	W	100%
12-16	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	A	85-51	L	0%
12-19	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	79-65	L	0%
12-22	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	104-52	L	0%
12-30	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	109-81	L	0%
1-6	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	86-90	L	0%
1-11	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	102-96	W	100%
1-13	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	85-78	W	100%
1-18	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	91-59	L	0%
1-20	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	A	80-100	W	100%
1-24	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	87-96	L	0%
1-27	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	65-73	W	100%
1-29	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	103-70	L	0%
2-3	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	97-91	W	100%
2-8	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	89-81	L	0%
2-10	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	82-75	L	0%
2-15	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	109-100	W	100%
2-17	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	86-75	W	100%
2-22	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	A	86-81	L	0%
2-26	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	76-80	W	100%
3-1	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	95-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Florida	ASun	26.47	26.47	42.24	42.24	-4.11	-4.11
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	5.91	5.91	60.71	60.71	1.27	1.27
NJIT	ASun	5.75	5.75	44.00	44.00	-0.69	-0.69
Lipscomb	ASun	4.34	4.34	70.37	70.37	1.77	1.77
Jacksonville	ASun	4.29	4.29	33.33	33.33	-1.43	-1.43
Stetson	ASun	4.23	4.23	30.77	30.77	-1.63	-1.63
USC Upstate	ASun	4.22	4.22	11.54	11.54	-3.25	-3.25
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.20	4.20	26.92	26.92	-1.94	-1.94
Michigan	B10	1.83	1.83	78.79	78.79	1.05	1.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.83	1.83	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
FIU	CUSA	1.81	1.81	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
LSU	SEC	1.80	1.80	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Missouri	SEC	1.77	1.77	60.00	60.00	0.35	0.35
Ball St.	MAC	1.75	1.75	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Florida	SEC	1.75	1.75	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.75	1.75	25.00	25.00	-0.87	-0.87
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	60.71	60.71	0.37	0.37
Michigan St.	B10	1.72	1.72	87.50	87.50	1.29	1.29
Miami FL	ACC	1.69	1.69	70.00	70.00	0.68	0.68
VCU	A10	1.69	1.69	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Wofford	SC	1.67	1.67	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Georgia	SEC	0.25	0.25	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.24	0.24	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.23	0.23	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.22	0.22	76.67	76.67	0.12	0.12
South Carolina	SEC	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Arkansas	SEC	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.17	0.17	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	SC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.16	0.16	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	82.35	82.35	0.10	0.10
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Denver	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
UMass Lowell	AE	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01